There is a >50% possibility that gold/silver will bounce between Wednesday – Friday. USD is overdue for a pullback, and oil (commodities) is overdue for a bounce. Nevertheless, here’s why we’ve decided to cut our long USLV (silver 3x ETF) position on the opening bell.

  1. If we wait and silver falls (instead of bounces) on the Fed meeting trigger, silver’s inevitable bounce might not bounce back to the current price. We clearly know that the intermediate term is bearish. By holding onto our USLV position, we might lose money just because of our short term greediness!
  2. Although we think that oil will bounce, our analysis for oil is practically worthless.
  3. If USD spikes now to 98-100 on the Fed trigger, USD’s inevitable pullback might not even fall back to the current level. In addition, USD will be supported on the 200 hourly sma even if there is a pullback. The 200 hourly sma is going up rapidly.
  4. The S&P will be screwed after Thursday, when all the tech earnings are released. The S&P’s reaction to Q2 earnings season has been insanely weak.

Ultimately, we trade the intermediate term. There’s no point in holding onto a long silver position when both the long term and medium term are bearish. If the short term bounce does not happen, our long silver position will be annihilated.

Yesterday, we said:

There is no point in keeping a position whose intermediate trend is clearly wrong. Cut it on the first small bounce. You really don’t know how far the bounce will go. Keep losses small.

We’re still waiting for that small bounce. There’s 2 main reasons.

  1. The USD index is guaranteed to make a pullback somewhere between the current price – 100. There are so many resistances from 98 – 100, and the USD is very late in its daily cycle. A pullback is overdue.
  2. Oil has been getting crushed in the past few days. There is a big support at $40. Tomorrow’s oil inventories report might be used as a bullish reversal trigger. (Oil and gold/silver are in the commodities family).

USD outlook

Investing Track  —  July 26, 2016



Overall, the USD index is making higher lows and higher highs.


  1. Wednesday 10:30 a.m. oil inventories
  2. Wednesday 2 p.m. Fed meeting
  3. Thursday 3:55 a.m. German unemployment rate
  4. Thursday 8 a.m. German CPI
  5. Friday 5 a.m. Eurozone GDP
  6. Friday 8:30 U.S. GDP


  1. The U.S. dollar reversed higher without even touching its 200 hourly sma.


  1. The Euro has once again turned $1.1 into resistance. Bearish for Euro.

Our action plan

Investing Track  —  July 26, 2016

General Plan

We are 80% sure that our medium term outlook for gold/silver is wrong. If USD doesn’t fall significantly and gold/silver don’t rally vigorously by the end of this week, we’ll be 100% sure that our medium term outlook is wrong.

There is no point in waiting until the end of this week. If gold/silver bounce now, they may very well start to breakdown on Friday.  We need to use the first bounce to 100% cut our USLV position (silver 3x ETF).

If we are wrong (i.e. gold/silver are in still bull markets, this rally still isn’t over), silver will at most rally to $26 before it makes a 15-20% correction. This means that silver will at least fall back to $22.

The current price is a little more than 10% below $22. This means that if we are wrong, we’ll miss out on at most 10% of silver’s bull market (and miss out on 30% profits from USLV, which is 3x leveraged).

If we are right (i.e. gold/silver will fall much farther), then silver will retrace at least 61.8% to $16.5 (this is also where 200 sma will be). This conservative target is more than 15% below where silver’s price is right now.

So from a pure risk:reward perspective right now, it’s better to cut ASAP. In addition, the odds of silver going down exceed the odds of silver going up.

Upcoming triggers

  1. Wednesday 10:30 a.m. oil inventories
  2. Wednesday 2 p.m. Fed meeting
  3. Thursday 3:55 a.m. German unemployment rate
  4. Thursday 8 a.m. German CPI
  5. Friday 5 a.m. Eurozone GDP
  6. Friday 8:30 U.S. GDP

Specific Plan

With so many triggers, you must have a specific price target in mind. Do not be led by the price action: the market can easily make multiple false breakouts and false breakdowns. Don’t chase the trend.

USD has a big resistance from 98-100. It will not break this resistance on the first try. So no matter what USD does during Wednesday’s Fed meeting, the USD will make a pullback soon. That pullback will push gold/silver higher. (Also oil has a big support at $40).

Cut USLV on the first bounce

We had a few targets for silver in mind:

  1. Silver’s hourly RSI reach 60. It has already done that.
  2. $19.83 is silver’s 200 hourly sma.
  3. $19.95 has 3 resistances converging. It is the 38.2% retracement of silver’s decline since July 4. It is close to the $20 whole # resistance. It is silver’s high on July 21 9pm. It is silver’s downwards trendline resistance.

Even though silver’s 200 hourly sma is the most likely target (with $19.95 being the 2nd most likely target), there is no point in keeping a position whose intermediate trend is clearly wrong. Cut it on the first small bounce. You really don’t know how far the bounce will go. Keep losses small.

In addition, the USD is already making a pullback as we speak. The USD will retest it’s 96.7-96.8 breakout price (turn that from prior resistance into support). USDJPY is falling a lot, AUDUSD is rising a lot. The USD is giving gold/silver bulls a chance to get out right now. Don’t wait.

It is now pretty clear that our medium term scenarios for the U.S. dollar, gold, and silver were wrong. Of course, we’ll need to wait until this week’s Fed meeting and Bank of Japan meeting are over to 100% know for sure that we were wrong, but right now it’s pretty clear.

Right now, the driving factor is a declining DAX, which will cause the Euro to fall significantly (and USD Index to rise significantly), which will cause gold/silver to fall significantly, and SPX will fall 6-15%.


Medium term bearish factors

  1. Germany’s economy is clearly going downhill, in particular its export sector. While we had previously dismissed this idea out of hand, it seems that China’s slowdown (emerging markets) really is hurting German exports. Germany relies on exports and manufacturing. Our favorite indicator is Ifo’s “Export Expectations”, which is clearly declining. This slowdown means that Germany – Europe’s sole economic engine – is running out of steam. Such a problem last occurred in 2012.
  2. This is a point that George Soros first mentioned. The Muslim migration and terrorism in Europe is causing Germany’s economy to deteriorate. For starters, it is insanely expensive to house and feed these Middle Eastern migrants. With Germany’s economy already going downhill, this will only exacerbate the process.
  3. Investors and traders know that more monetary easing isn’t going to save the German economy. That’s why the DAX isn’t rallying right now. The market can no longer play a “bad economic news is good for stocks because the ECB will ease” theme. The ECB started to ease in early 2015, and has already eased to the hilt as of early 2016. There’s nothing left for it to do.

Short term bearish factors

  1. DAX is clearly playing a “German economic problem” theme. It isn’t playing a “Brexit fear/contagion” theme. This is why the FTSE (U.K. stock market index) soared a few days after Brexit, while all the major European indexes have been very weak since Brexit (DAX, France, Italy). DAX is also very weak compared to the S&P 500.
  2. Throughout DAX’s entire big correction since 2015, every single bounce has been stopped at the 61.8% retracement level. DAX has been stopped at this fib retracement level twice already. Currently, the 61.8% retracement level is at 11,000.
  3. Although the DAX is still being supported at its 200 weekly sma, each of its bounces off of his support line are getting weaker.

The triggers for a DAX decline are unknown. Since DAX’s weakness is caused by German economic deterioration, this is a slowly developing story. This weak we get Eurozone CPI and GDP data.

Medium term bullish factors

  1. The U.S. stock market is not going to be in a bear market any time soon. So DAX will not be in a bear market either.
  2. If Germany’s economic data consistently improves, then the “bearish DAX” scenario is wrong.

Short term bullish factors

  1. If DAX firmly breaks above its 61.8% retracement level at 11,000, then the “bearish DAX” scenario might be wrong. Every single bounce in the current big correction has been stopped at 61.8% retracement.


The most likely scenario: DAX goes down in the short term and medium term.

Germany had a similar economic slowdown in 2012, but DAX was merely flat in 2012. That’s because the U.S. economy and stock market were on fire (the economy truly bottomed in 2011). The U.S. economy’s vigorous strength negated some of Germany’s weakness. Although the U.S. economy is solid right now, growth is nowhere near as good as 2012-2014.

Also, investors know that more ECB easing is useless. The ECB has already eased to the max. DAX cannot go up on easing anymore. If the DAX could rely on monetary easing to go higher, it would be soaring right now with the S&P.

As long as German economic data does not consistently improve, the bearish DAX scenario is correct.

Euro (and USD Index)

Medium term bearish factors

  1. Historically speaking, the Euro always declined when Europe’s economy (aka Germany’s economy) deteriorated, regardless of whether the DAX went up or down.
  2. The Euro is not a safe haven currency like USD.

Short term bearish factors

  1. The USD’s recent price action is bullish. Since Brexit, it has used every single trigger to go up. If the USD doesn’t fall a lot on Wednesday’s Fed meeting, then the USD is definitely going up. Nothing can hold the USD down anymore. The Bank of Japan’s Friday meeting is irrelevant for the USD Index. The Yen doesn’t account for a big part of USD index.
  2. The USD’s historical big tops are flat.
  3. The USD Index is rotating each currency, with the Yen, Euro, and CAD all pushing the USD higher.

Long term bullish factors

  1. If Germany’s economic data consistently improves, then DAX’s bottom is in. In that case, the Euro has made a 1 year big bottom.

Short term bullish factors

  1. The USD index has a big resistance at 98-100, and Euro has a big support at $1.04 – $1.
  2. On a higher time frame, Euro is still making higher lows.


The most likely scenario: USD up right now to 98-100, small pullback, then break 100 resistance.

As long as the German economy continues to deteriorate, the Euro is going down.


Medium term bearish factors

  1. If Euro’s bottom isn’t in, then the widely accepted target is $0.85. This corresponds to a USD Index target of 120 (year 2000 high). Such a big USD rally will definitely push gold/silver down. However, we do not know if gold/silver will make a new bear market low or not.
  2. Silver hasn’t crossed $26 and gold hasn’t crossed $1500, so we can’t say definitely that gold/silver are in bull markets. Perhaps they are still in bear markets.

Short term bearish factors

  1. Gold/silver’s recent price action is very weak. Gold/silver could’ve gone up on so many things/triggers. They didn’t. We thought that gold/silver would start to rally after silver retested $19.4 last Thursday. Instead, gold/silver are very weak, languishing at the bottom.
  2. If the bears can push gold/silver down, gold/silver will have made a false breakout from 200 weekly sma. The 200 weekly sma is considered to be a bear-bull defining moving average.
  3. DBA (agriculture ETF) has retraced 76.4% after rallying very vigorously. Such a big retracement is not normal for a bull market.
  4. Silver’s pullback has lasted longer than almost every pullback in the 2008-2011 bull market. Thus, silver is at least making a correction.

Medium term bullish factors

  1. Other commodities such as oil seem to have put in a long term bottom. But keep in mind that commodities do not all bottom together. Perhaps gold/silver will make a new low while oil will merely make a big retracement.
  2. The rally since January 2016 has been stronger than any rally in the 2011-2015 bear market. The strength of this rally is abnormal for a bear market.

Short term bullish factors

None. Gold/silver’s price action is very weak right now.


Most likely scenario: down right now, and keep going down.

If the Fed doesn’t hike rates on Wednesday, that will not shock anyone. Everyone expects the Fed to keep rates on hold. So gold/silver cannot use that trigger to soar.

The ideal situation is if the USD falls a little bit on Wednesday’s Fed meeting, gold/silver bounce a little, but the gold:silver ratio is bearish. If that happens, you know that gold/silver’s intermediate trend is DOWN.

From a long term perspective, you don’t know if gold/silver will break the December 2015 – January 2016 lows. You’ll know once gold/silver retrace 61.8% of the rally.

S&P 500

Medium term bearish factors

  1. S&P’s valuation is pretty high (almost close to our target).
  2. Germany had a similar economic problem in 2012, but the U.S. economy was on fire, which is why the S&P did not make a big correction in 2012. This time, the U.S. economy is solid but not on fire. Thus, it’s hard for the S&P to avoid at least a small correction.
  3. Nobody is paying attention to inflation as we expected (wage inflation). That’s why not all assets are going up together, and why the S&P isn’t reacting to CPI triggers.
  4. SPX is reacting to DAX and Germany’s economic problems. In some ways, DAX is leading the S&P. We always said that the January – February 2016 S&P decline was weird. The August 2015 decline was predicted, but Jan – Feb 2016 was not. Now we know the reason. DAX fell 10% in the first half of December while the S&P consolidated at the top. DAX’s decline dragged the S&P down.

Short term bearish factors

  1. The S&P’s reaction to Q2 earnings season is insanely weak. The S&P has barely moved despite a very strong earnings season. And with the S&P having broken out from 2134 (previous all time high), we expected the S&P to SOAR on Q2 earnings season. It hasn’t.
  2. The Fed isn’t going to ease any time soon, unless Germany’s economy is really in the dumps and the U.S. stock market falls.

Medium term bullish factors.

  1. The U.S. economy is solid right now. Almost all U.S. economic indicators are positive. Thus, a strong U.S. economy will not get killed by a weak German economy. Thus, a U.S. bear market is not going to happen.
  2. A big S&P correction is unlikely unless there is an internal U.S. bearish theme. The S&P made big corrections in 2010 and 2011. Although there were Eurozone problems in 2010 and 2011, there were also domestic problems in those 2 years (BP oil spill, Obama financial regulation, U.S. economy slowdown August 2011). There are no U.S. problems right now, which is why a big U.S. stock market correction is hard. A small correction is more likely.

Short term bullish factors

  1. The S&P just came out of a big correction. Historically, back-to-back big corrections are very rare. Thus, a small correction is more likely.


The most likely scenario: Down after this week’s tech earnings are released. Earnings season, the only thing holding the S&P up, is over. August 5 Jobs Report is a wildcard, and after that August is quiet.

If the S&P’s reaction to this week’s tech earnings is weak, then the S&P is definitely screwed.


This is not a bear market.

  1. The U.S. economy is ok. Economic recoveries after financial crises always take longer, so the current economic recovery isn’t “old”.
  2. The S&P 500 hasn’t reache “bubble” territory according to our valuation metrics.
  3. The Fed and China have tools to save us right now. The Fed can ease, and China hasn’t even cut interest rates in 2015 yet. Japan is muddling through, so they’re irrelevant.

We are no longer sure that the U.S. dollar is in a bear market. Thus, we are no longer sure that gold/silver are in bull markets. The only way to know definitely that gold/silver are in bull markets is if gold crosses above $1525 and silver crosses above $26 (2012 triple bottoms).

Until then, we must rely on the signs from price action.


A key reason why we thought gold/silver are not in corrections: this is too early in the intermediate cycle. Gold is in week 7 of its intermediate cycle, whose uptrend usually lasts at least 9 weeks. Thus, we reasoned that gold should rally for at least 2 more weeks.

Cycles and minimum times for cycles work well in the rearview mirror, but not so well in terms of forward looking predictions.

Previously, we thought of December 3 2015 – May 30 2016 was one wave, and May 30 – today was a second wave.

The problem is, gold did not decline a lot from May 2 to May 30. Thus, perhaps December 3 2015 – today is only 1 wave instead of 2 waves! By this count, the minimum time for a wave has been exceeded long ago!

That is why price action is more important than cycles. Cycles only work great in the rearview mirror.

Is this a pullback or not?

Over the past 2 weeks, we’ve said that gold and silver are in pullbacks. Perhaps we’re wrong.

This pullback has lasted 13 days. In the 2008-2011 bull market, pullbacks rarely exceeded 10 days, and never exceeded 16 days. If the silver pullback continues, then perhaps silver is at least in a correction (or a bear market).

GDX is outperforming.

GDX is still outperforming! This is not good. GDX represents dumb money (stock market speculators and traders who buy gold miners after gold soars). GDX already massively outperformed in the previous wave. GDX should not outperform in this wave.

18 ema signal

Silver soared on July 4. Thus, silver set off an EXTREME sell signal. Historically, this sell signal predicted corrections, not pullbacks. In addition, this is a very rare sell signal, so it’s not to be taken lightly.

What are we waiting for.

Everything depends on the U.S. dollar. Is the U.S. dollar in a bull or a bear market?

Despite these bearish thoughts, we have not cut our USLV position (3x long silver). There are 3 more triggers before the quiet August period.

  1. Next Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
  2. Next Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting.
  3. August 5 Jobs Report.

The problem is that the Jobs Report is too far away. Thus, the real “last trigger” that decides everything is next Friday’s BoJ meeting.

If gold/silver still don’t rise on next Wednesday’s Fed meeting and the USD still doesn’t fall a lot on next Wednesday’s Fed meeting, then cut all of our USLV position. You cannot wait for the last trigger when trading silver. Silver often crashes/soars on the last trigger. By then, it’ll be too late to cut your position.

We’ve been consistently beating on the USD bear market drum over the past few weeks. However, the USD’s bullish price action is so relentless that perhaps we are wrong. Perhaps the U.S. dollar is still in a bull market. Let’s re-evaluate our long term case.

Price action

The USD’s recent price action isn’t normal for a bear market. Since Brexit, every bounce in the USD is being sustained, every decline has been halted, and the USD is going up on every trigger (or at least not gone down).

We thought the USD would definitely fall on Wednesday’s ECB meeting. It didn’t, and instead rallied to new highs!

From the perspective of intermediate and daily cycles, the U.S. dollar should have gone down a long time ago. It didn’t. This is not normal for a bear market.


U.S. dollar bulls are not playing a safety haven theme or a rate hike theme. We know that Brexit is over, and the earliest date of a potential rate hike is in December. So what bullish theme is the USD playing?

Our previous answer to that was simple: no bullish theme. That is why we believed the USD to be in a bear market. However, it is not possible to know all the bullish and bearish themes, just like it isn’t possible to know all the facts.

When the price action is overwhelmingly bullish but you can’t see any bullish themes, make the price action the top priority. You are missing the bullish theme.

  1. When trading, it is best to know what the bullish theme is first, recognize the bullish price action second, then go long third.
  2. However, sometimes you won’t know what the bullish theme is at first. Thus, you can only recognize the bullish price action first, go long second, and find out the bullish theme later.

Perhaps the USD’s bullish theme is a deteriorating European economy, courtesy of Middle Eastern migrants in Europe.

There was a sign of this today. 9 people were killed by Muslim terrorists in Germany, and the U.S. dollar went up. This is the first time that the U.S. dollar has gone up on terrorist triggers in the past year.

In addition, DAX is still 18% below its 2015 highs! This shows that the German economy is weak.

How to know for sure that the U.S. dollar is still in a bull market

We’re not entirely convinced that the USD is still in a bull market. We’ll give it one last chance.

If the USD does not fall significantly by next Thursday (after next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting trigger), then this is most likely a bull market. If the USD does not fall significantly by next Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting trigger, then this is definitely a bull market.

Besides the Jobs Report on August 5, there are no triggers left in August! With the U.S. dollar in an uptrend and no triggers left to reverse the uptrend, the U.S. dollar cannot fall.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve said that there is no bearish theme for the S&P 500. The U.S. economy is strong, so there is no bearish theme from within the U.S. Thus, there will not be another big correction or a bear market for U.S. stocks any time soon.

However, there is a potential bearish theme that can cause a small correction in U.S. stocks. It will take months for this theme to play out, so a small correction is not imminent.

Once again, Europe is the gift that keeps on giving.

Migrants causing European economic problems?

This is an idea that George Soros proposed in early 2016. Housing, feeding, and looking after these Middle Eastern migrants costs a lot of money. Perhaps they are causing Europe’s economy to drastically slow down.

In addition, the weekly Muslim terrorist attacks, sexual harassment from young Muslim men, and other shenanigans from these migrants isn’t exactly aiding European business confidence. If you’re a shop owner in Paris, how optimistic would you be considering that you’re living under a cloud of fear? With Europe turning into the new Middle East, some safety conscious travelers are choosing to avoid Europe.

Unfortunately we do not have any good leading economic indicators for the Eurozone like we do for the U.S.

However, keep in mind that the stock market lags the real time economy. So if the stock market is performing poorly, the economy must have turned down already.

And that is happening to the DAX right now (German stock index). DAX has been insanely weak since mid-2015. Despite the S&P making a new all time high, DAX is still 18% below its all time high!

Even the UK admitted that Brexit did not really impact its economy. Despite this bullish fact, DAX’s rally since Brexit has been very weak. Something is going on in Europe…



Gold and silver seem to have bottomed. We expect next Wednesday’s Fed meeting trigger to push gold/silver to new highs.



The gold:silver ratio has fallen to 67. Bullish and normal.


  1. Precious metals are still very early in the long term bull cycle.
  2. Gold is in week 7 of its intermediate cycle next week (average 18-25 weeks from trough to trough). Since this is a bull market, this should be a right translated cycle (i.e. this intermediate cycle should top after more than 9 weeks). This means that the rally still has at least 3 weeks to go, which will lead us into August.

Unless this is a bear market, gold/silver should not make a correction right now. Gold  and silver are too early in their intermediate cycles.

Even rallies in bear markets last almost 2 months.


  1. Silver reached its 18ema, and seems to be reversing up. Gold came very close to reaching its 200 weekly sma support.
  2. Silver has turned its 200 30min sma into support.
  3. Gold is facing resistance at its 200 hourly sma. Silver’s next resistance is at $20, which is also its 200 hourly sma.

From a fib retracement standpoint, silver’s bottom is most likely in. Silver retraced 76.4% of the July 20 23:00 – July 21 4:00 rise, and then rallied. That is a classic bottom. Likewise, gold retraced 61.8%, and then rallied.

Themes and USD correlation

As expected, gold/silver are using today’s ECB meeting and will most likely use next Wednesday’s Fed meeting to rally.

With the USD about to fall, the gold/silver rally will be given an extra boost.

Price action

Within expectations.

Monetary policy and triggers

Precious metals seem to have put the bottom in today. If silver/gold haven’t made new highs by next Wednesday, they should use the Fed trigger to make new highs on Wednesday (i.e. silver break above $21.14, gold break $1375.26).


Gold, silver, and GDX have bounced off of short term extreme bearish sentiment.


Today was very important in terms of news. The Euro is resilient in the face any trigger, finding support at $1.1.

Bank of Japan’s decision to not conduct “helicopter money” has reversed the USD/JPY’s bounce.

The USD should start to break down tomorrow or Monday at the latest (Fridays are quiet). The USD should not wait until next Wednesday’s Fed meeting to break down.



The U.S. dollar can only play a rate hike theme at this point.

  1. For starters, even the market recognizes that a rate hike before December is unlikely. (See the CME’s prediction).
  2. Even if the Fed does hike rates, that is not bullish. History shows that the USD tends to rise when the rate hike cycle begins (i.e. inflation is here).

Future monetary policy is very clear.

  1. The ECB will not cut rates.
  2. The Fed will not raise rates until at least December.
  3. Bank of Japan will not conduct “helicopter money” (which they made very clear today).

The fact that the ECB didn’t cut rates today wasn’t surprising, which is why the Euro didn’t spike on the news.

The Yen tanked because the Bank of Japan’s governor killed any chance of “helicopter money”. Today’s Bank of Japan announcement replaces the effect of next week’s BoJ meeting, thereby beginning the Yen’s downtrend. Thus, the only real trigger left is next Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

We all that the Fed will not hike rates on Wednesday. Without any solid impact, the Fed trigger next week is just a trigger. With the U.S. dollar so late in its intermediate & daily cycles, the Fed trigger will likely be a bearish trigger.


The USD is very late in both intermediate and daily cycles. A downturn is ready to happen any day now.

  1. The USD is in week 11 of its intermediate cycle. Intermediate cycles last on average 18-25 weeks (from bottom to bottom).
  2. The USD is in day 20 of its daily cycle. Daily cycles last 18-28 days on average (from bottom to bottom).


  1. The U.S. dollar was resisted at yesterday’s breakout high, and it found support at yesterday’s breakout level (96.7 – 96.8). With the U.S. dollar sliding back down to 96.8, it seems that the bears are winning.

Individual currency pairs.

  1. No matter what triggers are thrown at the Euro, it just can’t break below the $1.1 support. Bullish for Euro, bearish for USD.
  2. More importantly, the USD/JPY pair is dead. The USD/JPY has most certainly reversed down.
  3. Oil has been steadily making lower lows and lower highs since May 24. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD has failed to make higher highs. Instead, it is making lower highs! This is bullish for CAD. USD/CAD at $1.31 resistance. In addition, crude oil futures for September is finding support at the 200 sma.

Today’s Bank of Japan reversal has taken the wind out of the USD bulls’ sails.